Guest blogger- my son Julian-Iowa Predictions

I have already made my predictions for the Democratic caucus in Iowa. So tonight Morialekafa has a guest blogger who is more informed and much more of a political junkie - Julian Langness - who wants to offer his predictions.







Hi, for any of you who read my dad’s blog who don’t know me, I’m his son, Julian. I’m 22 and I go to the University of Washington. I’m a creative writing major but I am hoping to go to law school after I graduate. I’m also a total political nerd, and lacking my own blog or outlet for my predictions on the presidential race, my dad has been nice enough to let me use his for tonight.

So, first of all, in June I predicted that the general election would end up being between Barack Obama and Wesley Clark against Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee (Clark and Huckabee as Vice-Presidents I mean). I’m still reasonably confident in that, although I don’t think there’s any chance that Huckabee and Romney would pair up now that they have become such heated opponents and begun to attack each other so much. So yeah, I think if Romney wins he’ll probably still pick some evangelical southerner. Someone like Mark Sanford (Gov- South Carolina), or even Fred Thompson maybe.

But yeah, the main thing I wanted to talk about was the Iowa Caucuses tomorrow. I think that these primary’s are probably the most interesting in a very long time, probably in my dad’s whole lifetime even. Cause they didn’t even have primaries till what? Like forty or fifty years ago? And apparently this is the first time since 1952 where there wasn’t an incumbent president or vice president in them. So its pretty incredible just because of that. And then of course there’s also the fact that there’s a woman, and a black guy, etc. But mostly I think they are so interesting this time around because there are literally 8 or 9 candidates who could potentially end up being the next president going into Iowa.

I don’t know how much Iowa is going to narrow it down though. The Dem side is looking totally wide open, and the G.O.P. side is somewhat clearer for tomorrow, but in the long term its also pretty wide open. But anyway, I think the key influence on how they turn out tomorrow night is going to be attendance. I don’t remember the exact estimates, but I think that some people were saying there could be anywhere from 120,000 to 170,000 on the Democratic side and maybe only 50,000 to 90,000 on the republican. Those kind of numbers would be a good indicator that dems should do good in 08 too, but yeah, they also will have a huge impact on who wins tomorrow. For the democrats, the more people who caucus the better Obama will do. Because he has he most support among independents and crossover republicans. And then for the republicans, the more people who come the better Huckabee does. I think if you took all the republicans from Iowa who voted for Bush in 04 and had them all vote on a nominee, Huckabee would probably get around 40%, however, out of the three million people in Iowa, a pretty infinitesimal number are going to be caucusing. So yeah, if not that many people come out on the Republican side we could see some big surprises. I think that if that is the case Romney will pull a pretty wide upset, because he has so much money and such a good organization. Huckabee is way more popular, but he has little official organization outside of the homeschooling community and churches, and little to no money. And then the other person who benefits a lot if there’s a low turnout is Ron Paul. Because he has a core number of supporters who I think will come out for him no matter what. Some people on television have been talking about the impact it could have if Ron Paul gets fourth or even third. I think that that could very well be the case, as you’ll see below. I also think the suggestion going around that McCain will get a strong second is ridiculous. I think it is kind of just wishful thinking for the media, who have always loved McCain. Republicans do not like John McCain, its that simple. A lot of them disliked him in 2000, and they hate him now because of McCain-Feingold (which is understandable- I don’t support McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform myself…) and because of the illegal immigrant amnesty issue. I also think Thompson will do better than anticipated, because he has basically thrown everything he has left at doing good in Iowa, and I think this will hurt Huckabee. So yeah, here are my predictions-


Republican Prediction One -

(this is my bold, ballsy prediction, like my 70-1 bet that will make me look like a genius when it (hopefully) comes to fruition. It is also the one that represents what I think will happen if there is an especially low turnout for the republican side).

1) Mitt Romney- 26%
2) Ron Paul- 21%
3) Mike Huckabee- 20%
4) Fred Thompson- 14%
5) John McCain- 12%
6) Rudy Giuliani- 5%
7) Duncan Hunter- >1%
8) Alan Keyes >1%


Republican Prediction Two-

(this is my more reasonable estimate)

1) Mitt Romney- 30%
2) Mike Huckabee-29%
3) Ron Paul- 16%
4) Fred Thompson- 11%
5) John McCain- 9%
6) Rudy Giuliani- 4%
7) Duncan Hunter- >1%
8) Alan Keyes >1%



Democrat Prediction-

(I’m goin pretty even on this one, I think it is going to be pretty close among the top three, and then a big drop-off from there)

1) Barack Obama- 31%
2) Hilary Clinton- 30%
3) John Edwards- 28%
4) Richardson- 3%
5) Kucinich-2-3%
6) Biden 2-3%
7) Dodd 2-3%
8 Gravel >1%