Sunday, December 06, 2009

Putin and the Rise of Russia - book

Putin and the Rise of Russia, by Michael Stuermer (Pegasus Books, 2009)

Michael Stuermer is a well-known and recognized authority on Russia and Germany. If you are interested in Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and today’s Russia this is an excellent and informative recent history that I recommend highly.

This is not a biography of Putin, but it does tell you how it is he came to power, what roles he had previously, and how he has managed to pull Russia back from the brink of nowhere to the position it has again now as one of the great powers. Above all, Putin is an ardent Russian nationalist who is trying to improve the lot of the Russian people and develop the Russian economy for the future.

Stuermer offers what I believe is truly a “fair and balanced” account of contemporary Russia. He discusses both its strengths and weaknesses. Putin’s success in bringing Russia back from near bankruptcy coincides with the rise in the price of oil and natural gas. Energy is now the main source of Russian wealth as they have lots of it and furnish most of Europe with power. Putin is wise enough to know that this cannot last forever and is trying to use these windfall funds to develop the Russian economy to be strong in other ways in the future. Along the way he has increased pensions for his citizens, began paying salaries regularly, and has, in general, improved the lives of Russians, thus achieving a relatively high level of popularity. After the failure of the Yeltsin attempt to introduce democracy, which degenerated into a wild contest to see who could grab the most and created vast fortunes for a few and left the majority far behind, Putin has been forced to create what has been described as an “authoritarian democracy.” The majority of Russians seem willing to accept this as they have been so eager for stability, although there are some, like the ex communists and a few others, who are opposed and have caused trouble from time to time. As Russian natural resources, especially in the energy field, are so vast, and international demand is so huge, there is no doubt that Russia will remain a powerful nation for a long time to come.

There are, however, genuine and serious problems facing Russia that Stuermer does not hesitate to discuss. They lag far behind the West in technology, for example, and although they have the natural resources they desperately need technological assistance. They also lag behind in health care and life expectancy. Far more importantly, they have a serious demographic problem with a birth rate among Russians that has been falling dramatically for years. This has led Putin to offer special financial incentives to Russians women to have more children. Related to this is the huge Muslim population that exists in Russian, especially to the South and East. The “wars” with the Chechen Republic are the best example of this, but the problem is much greater due to the large and expanding Muslim population in general that threatens the ethnic Russian population. Unlike the European problem with Muslims, those in Russia are not immigrants, but have lived there for centuries. The sheer size of Russia is itself a potential problem. We think of the U.S. as a large country with our three time zones, Russia has eleven! And in the east and southeast there is China with its huge population sitting near the Siberian border which protects huge tracts of relatively undeveloped territory.

Not only does Putin have to deal with the abovementioned problems, there is also the question of his relationship with his protégé, President Dmitri Mededved. When Putin announced Mededved as his successor to the Presidency there were obvious misgivings about how power might be shared between the two, although in general the Russian people seemed to think this was a fine choice. So far there seems to be no particular problems with this arrangement, but of course there is always the potential, and it is not clear whether Putin intends to reclaim the Presidency in the future. And there still remain the remnants of the communists that are not on board Putin’s version of democracy. How ruthless Putin has had to be to attain and hold on to his power is largely a matter of speculation, but there is no doubt about his determination to re-establish Mother Russia as a world power.

There is no mention of it at all in Stuermer’s fine account, but I would love to know what Vladimir Putin, who is fluent in four languages, educated by the KGB, and involved in Russian, European, and International politics since a very early age, thought of the marginally retarded George W. Bush who claimed to look into his eyes and,” saw his soul,” and then called him “Pootie-Poot.” Indeed, I would like to know what he thinks of a country that would elect such a person in the first place.

In any case this is a fine book that I hope will be widely read, especially by members of our Congress (if any of them actually do read).

1 comment:

boba said...

They lag far behind the West in technology,... I disagree with this point. Russia has proven to be on par with much of the world in aerospace research, in computer programming, and in materials sciences. What they lack is widespread implementation of technology. They also have problems with movement of their academic class - the infamous brain drain. In the high tech firms I worked, there were numerous Russian emigrants who were highly competent. Many left because the plutocracy that is Russia today left them no other choice.
I also disagree that geographic size is cause of the problem. It is the enforced nationalism that creates the problem. Afghanistan is a much smaller country, has a slightly more homogeneous population yet has the same problem. People do not identify with the state, they identify with their clan. Russia has too great of a difference between the many clans. They want to impose a European (and Western European to boot) structure on Central Asian clans. The Chinese solve this problem by encouraging Han migration to Kashgar and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. By doing so they create a new population dynamic that is more attuned to the desires of Beijing. (Whether that is ethical is another story. It certainly is effective.)
No doubt Russia will be a major player in the world stage. However, their ascendancy will be hampered by their political structure which engenders animosity among the populace. Given that much of their wealth lies in natural resources, and those assets lie in diverse regions, they would do well to determine a better path that the plutocracy / autocracy that they seem to gravitate towards.
BTW I enjoy this blog - really good stuff. Got the link from someone over on Ed Brayton's Dispatches from the Culture War, and became a regular reader since.