Julian's election predictions and From disgraceful to despicable

It is pretty much agreed that the McCain/Palin campaign has been one of the most disgraceful in modern political history. But now, in the last couple of days of the campaign it has moved from merely disgraceful to quite despicable. I say this not only because of the content of their accusations, but because they are such blatant lies. For example, they have resurrected the Reverend Wright controversy and are playing it over and over tonight. It claims that Reverend Wright is a “Preacher of Hate,” and they depend upon the now infamous quote where he says “god damn America.” I confess to not being an expert on the Reverend, and I have no real idea of what he must have said over 20 years of giving sermons, but I would bet that moments like the one they continue to quote are much more rare than his positive sermons. And, as I recall, the quote in question was taken from a sermon in which he had just objected to the fact that American troops were killing innocent civilians, including children. Was he supposed to bless that? Furthermore, if I remember correctly, Wright served honorably and patriotically in our military. Another example of how far the McCain/Palin has deteriorated has to do with there newly brought up charge that Obama once said he wanted to bankrupt the coal industry. They have deliberately taken this out of context from a speech he gaver that was in fact in defense of the coal industry. Truth has long since disappeared from their campaign but this is a case even more blatant than most.

“Anyway, my political advisor, my son Julian, wants me to publish his predictions for tomorrow. So here they are:

JULIAN LANGNESS: As I have done several times in the past, I am going to use my dad’s blog to post something of my own. I am very into the specifics of the election- the electoral map, the senate races, the house, etc. so I wanted to post my predictions. The following was originally posted on my facebook account last night but I wanted to put them on my dad’s blog too. So yeah, I hope anyone who reads them enjoys them and yeah, check em out and see if you agree and then see how I do tomorrow night. Thanks, Julian

1) the popular vote
2) the electoral vote and which states each candidate wins
3) all the individiual senate seats that are close and what will happen in the senate
4) and then also the number of house seats the democrats will win.
5) and how walt minnick will do and if he'll beat bill sali and get elected to washington to represent the idaho 1st district (or, as i like to call it- the non mormon half of idaho:) )

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1) okay- the popular vote. some of the polls have obama up by 13. which i think is totally unrealistic. no democrat other than lyndon johnson in 1964 has gotten more than 50.1% of the popular vote since the 1940's. and even though this is a very great year for democrats in terms of the perceptions of republicans b/c of bush, etc. and the economy, i think the country is still pretty much a 50-50 country, and that we are in the middle of an extended period where we have very close elections, starting in 2000 and probably continuing for at least a few more cycles. so, i think obama will end up winning the popular vote 52% - 47%.

2) but, of course, the popular vote doesn't matter in the least bit for who gets elected, as we saw in 2000 (although i think even though gore won the popular vote he deserved to lose the election; first, because i believe in the system of electoral votes (for all the reasons why its good read about it on wikipedia), although i do believe he probly won the popular vote in florida, which would have given him the electoral vote anyway, and 2nd because al gore ran an awful campaign, including making the worst VP selection ever- yes, worse than Dan Quayle, or Palin if you consider her up there.
ELECTORAL VOTE: but yeah, most people agree that obama should win every combined gore/kerry states. this is all the regular democrat states, including pennsylvania, along with New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Iowa. this adds up to 264 electoral votes. you need 270 to win. or 269 to tie, and a tie would go to obama because the house of reps than decides it. so that means that if obama can hold on to all those, which he easily should, even though mccain is tryin real hard on pennsylvania, then he only needs ONE more state to win, nevada (5 EVs) or anything bigger. PREDICTION-------- I PREDICT he will win all the kerry/gore states (that includes Pennsylvania) adding to 264 EV's. PLUS: VIRGNIA, COLORADO, NEVADA, FLORIDA- 318-220. i also think montana will be the surprise of the election. there are no republican incumbents to bring out state voters. and the state is in the west- they may spend all day hearing about how well obama is doing back east and feel its worthless to go vote for mccain. and finally, it is one of two states where Ron Paul is on the ballot. all this could add up to an obama win. so i think it could very well go more obama than ohio or north carolina and surprise alot of people. another very close electoral vote is in nebraska- not the state, but the omaha district: nebraska and maine are the two states that distribute their votes partially based on who wins congresional districts. so obama could potentially win this single electoral vote. the polls are supposed to be about tied, and i think obama could very welll win it, but i am not going to add it to my official prediction. if obama wins more states than the ones i am predicting, then it will be the tipping point for a landslide, which will mean VA, Fl, CO, NV, Ohio, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, and Arizona, and the single Nebraska vote from Omaha: 392-146. again though the first one is my offical prediction, the one up above with obama with 318, the second is what will happen if he exceeds 318, which i think will then likely mean a landslide.

3) THE SENATE- the big question is if the dems will go from their current 51 seats to 60, which means a filibuster-proof majority. that would be huge. i think there is no doubt that obama doing well and getting lots of voters out in states like N.C. and Oregon and Minnesota will help the senate candidates there. I think the following will happen:
In COLORADO Udall will win
In NEW MEXICO his cousin the other Udall will win
VIRGINIA former governor Mark Warner (who would have made a far superior VP to Biden) will win in landslide.
In NEW HAMPSHIRE, John Sununu, a good man, will lose because the state is getting so democratic. thats four guaranteed.
In OREGON Jeff Merkely will beat Gordon Smitth, another very good man.
In ALASKA, the "candidate without the college education", will beat "the felon" as a certain someone described them to me... -so begich over stephens
In NORTH CAROLINA Kay Hagan (my favorite!!!) she's awesome, and a hottie:) will beat Liddy Dole (Bob Doles wife), who ran a disgusting and desperate add that backfired in my opinion.
In MINNESOTA, Al Franken, the comedian, despite running an atrocious campaign, will defeat Norm Coleman, the filthy hypocrite who is famous for having been a documented giant pothead in college- and now is an arch-fascist on drug policy. franken "the only new york jew in the race who is actually from minnesota" as he calls himself lol, will ride obama's coattails to victory, and then very likely lose 6 years from now when up for re-election. both these candidates are pathetic. if the election lasted another two months the third party candidate would probably end up winning. with it right now, i say he wins maybe 15 %?
THAT MAKES 59 SEATS. and brings us to what will be the great tragedy of the election- in GEORGIA, the Democratic Candidate- J. Martin, WILL DEFEAT Saxby Chambliss, the incumbent republican who NOBODY would ever believe would lose if you told them six months ago. BUT!!!! Georgia has a rule that if no candidate wins 50% of the vote, there is then a runoff election. there is a third party candidate running, and he will keep Martin from reaching 50%. this means that there will then be a speciall runoff between Martin and Chambliss. and when it happens there won't be hundreds of thousands of black people and kids going out to vote in order to vote for obama, and republicans will be desperate not to lose that 60th seat, so Chambliss will win because he gets a second try.SO, THE DEMS WILL WIN 9 RACES ON TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT ONE WILL GET REVERSED IN THE RUNOFF ELECTION IN GEORGIA, MEANING THEY WILL GO INTO THE NEXT CONGRESS WITH 59 SEATS SEATS IN THE SENATE. if they drop lieberman it will be 58, but i dont think they will. they will also have olympia snowe and susan collins, the two moderate female republican senators from maine, who will probably vote with them enough to give them basically a filibuster proof majority.

4) IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, every seat is up for grabs, just as they are every two years. the dems already won 31 two year ago. so i don't think they will win a number of seats commenserate to what they will in the senate, because the senate was especially wired for a democratic landslide this year becuase the republicans were by chance defending 24 seats, the Democrats only 10. whereas in the house every seat is up for grabs, not just 1/3 like in the senate. so the democrats don't have the same built in advantage this year in the house like they do in the senate. SO, I PREDICT THAT THE DEMOCRATS WILL WIN 26 SEATS IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.

5) Walt Minnick is the democrat running to represent north and west idaho in the national house of represenatives for the idaho 1st district (or the non-mormon district as i like to call it). if minnick wins it could very likely be a race talked about in the national media, as it would be represenative of a democratic landslide, as idaho is often talked about as an example of the ultimate republican state. this is probably accurate in a way, because although our leaders, Jim Hansen and Keith Roark, are doing great things in building our state party, idaho still is a very republican state. this is because of several factors- the large numbers of mormons for one, also the fact that some democrats have unfortunately been outspoken in their opposition to the complete rights of gun owners- like Joe Biden for instance. which is very unfortunate as idaho democrats themselves aren't anti-gun in most cases. and also because of dismissive comments made about idaho by hillary and bill clinton on multiple occasions. so its a tough state for democrats to get elected in. although the 1st district is definitely more accessible to dems than the 2nd, and bill sali is not a popular figure, including among member of his own party. he only won his 2006 primary with 26% of the vote, and a lot of inter-party opposition. and only beat larry grant 55-45 in 2006. a poll shocked many people a couple weeks ago that showed minnick up 52 to 45. many people questioned the accuracy of it, but i think at the least it shows that minnick has a chance, and a good enough one that the DNC decided to put money into it, which they don't do just out of the kindness of their heart, but only where they think they have a chance of winning. SO, MY PREDICTION IS THAT MINNICK WILL GET ELECTED TO CONGRESS IF THE DEMOCRATS WIN AT LEAST 34 SEATS. i think that is about his spot. meaning that if the dems win 33, minnick will come closer to winning that any other democrat who loses. and if the dems win 50 lets say, then minnick will win by a margin larger than 16 of the other victors. as i said earlier though i am predicting net gain of only 26 seats though, so therefore i technically am not predicting a minnick win, although i will be hoping with all my heart that he does, as he is a great guy and has worked extremely hard in his campaign, along with jim and keith and jeanne and all the workers and volunteers and everyone else in the state party who have done such a good job. and i will be ecstatic if he does win! i also would like to note the initiative of debbie holmes in running for the 2nd district seat and putting in all the hard work and heart that it takes to do that. and also larry laroccos run for senate. i think that unfortunately it is still to hard for a dem to win statewide, but if anyone deserves to get elected to the u.s. senate it is larry. i went to a fundraiser for him in denver during the national democratic convention and he was VERY impressive. and if walt loses than i hope larry runs for congress against sali eventually. but i think its still too hard for a dem to win statewide in idaho. maybe a mormon democrat, but yeah, eastern idaho is just too solidly republican as a result of its LDS population. but anyway hopefully a few of you found this somewhat interesting:) and if i end up being correct in my estimates i wanted to have this on here as proof of my foretelling abilities:)

LKBIQ:

No wonder Americans hate politics when, year in and year out, they hear politicians make promises that won't come true because they don't even mean them - campaign fantasies that win elections but don't get nations moving again.
Bill Clinton